ISSN 1003-8035 CN 11-2852/P
    张群,肖智林,马志刚,等. 基于克里金插值法的滑坡降雨阈值研究−以四川巴中红层滑坡为例[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2024,35(0): 1-9. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202403008
    引用本文: 张群,肖智林,马志刚,等. 基于克里金插值法的滑坡降雨阈值研究−以四川巴中红层滑坡为例[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,2024,35(0): 1-9. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202403008
    ZHANG Qun,XIAO Zhilin,MA Zhigang,et al. Derivation of rainfall thresholds for landslides by Kriging interpolation: A case study of red-bed landslides in Bazhong[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2024,35(0): 1-9. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202403008
    Citation: ZHANG Qun,XIAO Zhilin,MA Zhigang,et al. Derivation of rainfall thresholds for landslides by Kriging interpolation: A case study of red-bed landslides in Bazhong[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2024,35(0): 1-9. DOI: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202403008

    基于克里金插值法的滑坡降雨阈值研究以四川巴中红层滑坡为例

    Derivation of rainfall thresholds for landslides by Kriging interpolation: A case study of red-bed landslides in Bazhong

    • 摘要: 降雨阈值是目前最常用的降雨型滑坡预警判据之一,然而目前经验性降雨阈值主要是针对滑坡的区域性预警,对于该区域内随空间变化的单个滑坡的降雨阈值还缺乏探讨。本研究基于巴中2014—2021年降雨型滑坡历史数据以及小时降雨数据,采用克里金插值法,提取2014—2020年各滑坡灾害的四类致灾短期雨量(1小时、12小时、24小时、72小时)和相应的长期雨量(滑坡发生前7天),由此分成四类阈值模型进行分析,确定每组模型长期和短期致灾雨量阈值分布情况,并用2021年滑坡灾害数据验证所得的降雨阈值。研究结果显示四类阈值模型的预测准确率分布在40%−65%之间,表明四类阈值都具有较好的应用前景。同时,预测准确率随短期降雨时长增加而提高,由72小时-7天致灾雨量数据所计算的降雨阈值预测准确率最高,为62%;而1小时−7天模型计算的降雨阈值预测准确率最低,为46%。基于模型的最高预测准确率,本研究计算得到四类模型的最佳短期与长期致灾雨量的划分比例,从而定量划分了短期降雨致灾滑坡和长期降雨致灾滑坡。该项研究通过对致灾雨量空间分布的计算,可提取滑坡隐患点位上的降雨阈值,实现了区域一点一阈值的目标,丰富了现有降雨阈值计算模型。

       

      Abstract: The rainfall threshold is one of the most commonly used landslide warning methods currently. However, existing empirical rainfall thresholds are mainly aimed at regional warning of landslides, lacking discussion on the rainfall thresholds for individual landslides within the region that vary spatially. Based on historical rainfall-induced landslide data and hourly rainfall data in Bazhong City from 2014 to 2021, this study employs Kriging interpolation methods to extract four types of short-term rainfall (1 hour, 12 hours, 24 hours, 72 hours) and their corresponding long-term rainfall (7 days before the landslide occurrence). In these four threshold models, we calculate the distribution of long-term and short-term rainfall thresholds in each group, and then validate them by landslide disaster data from 2021. The research results indicate that the prediction accuracy of the four types of threshold models ranges from 40% to 65%, suggesting they have good potential for practical application. Additionally, the prediction accuracy improves with the increase in the duration of short-term rainfall. The prediction accuracy for rainfall thresholds calculated from 72-hour-7-day model is highest, which can reach 62%; while the prediction accuracy for the 1-hour-7-day model is 46%. Based on the highest prediction accuracy of these models, this study calculates the optimal ratios for short-term and long-term disaster-causing rainfall for four types of models, which lead to a quantitative division between short-term rainfall-induced landslides and long-term rainfall-induced landslides. Through the calculation of the spatial distribution of disaster-causing rainfall, this study was able to extract rainfall thresholds at potential landslide locations, achieving the goal of one threshold per site in the region, and enhancing the existing models for calculating rainfall thresholds.

       

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